The U.S. solar market: mixed views

GreenTech Media held its Solar Market Insight Conference Monday and Tuesday in San Francisco, bringing together major players in residential, commercial and utility-scale solar to track the trends in the U.S. solar market at present and going forward.

Many of the panels and presentations are still available online for techno-geeks like me who couldn’t make to SF.

The GreenTech outlook is decidedly mixed – the residential solar market will continue booming through the end of the year, but could slow in 2013 and beyond.

– U.S. solar installations are expected to hit 3.2 gigawatts this year, a 71 percent spike over the 1.9 gigawatts installed in 2011. Next year growth could slow, with installations projected to grow to 3.9 megawatts, or about 22 percent.

– Solar leasing companies continue to claim an increasing slice of the residential market.  In California, leased residential systems accounted for 10 percent of residential installation; as of the second quarter of the year, they now make up more than 70 percent. In Arizona, the figure is more than 80 percent.

– On the utility-scale side — projects 50 megawatts and up — the picture is more complicated. Shayle Kann, GreenTech’s vice president of research, reported that the U.S. has about 2.2 gigawatts of utility-scale projects in operation, with another 4 gigs in construction and close to 6 more gigawatts in the pipeline for 2016-17.

The question is how many of the projects not in construction or in earlier stages of development will make it.

“If you don’t have a PPA, it’s harder and harder to find one,” Kann said, referring to power purchase agreements developers negotiate to sell power to utilities, which are critical to getting a project financed.

The trend is toward smaller-scale projects and much lower prices being offered on PPAs, he said. 9.7 gigawatts in the pipeline. Only utilties in states with renewable energy portfolios, such as the 33 percent mandate in California, are showing any appetite for large projects, Kann said.

– One issue hanging over both residential and utility scale is the sunsetting of the 30 percent federal investment tax credit at the end of 2016. The credit has been key to the growth of solar leasing and utility-scale financing — it draws in investors that need a healthy income tax credit.

As it stands now, at the end of 2016, it will go down to 10 percent and especially for utility scale solar, that prospective drop is already having an impact as developers look at the timelines for big projects.

These trends could have significant effects for solar development in eastern Riverside County, for projects on public and private land.

Can NextEra Energy get the 1,000-megawatt Blythe project – which it bought from the bankrupt Solar Trust of America — repermitted, financed and in construction by the end of 2016? Ditto BrightSource Energy and the 500-megawatt Palen project it bought from Solar Trust, along with its Sonoran West project, one of the two contracts the California Public Utilities Commission approved last week.

BrightSource officials have said they don’t expect Sonoran to come online till 2017, and they have no definite timeline for Palen.

The Coachella Valley, and surrounding areas, have looked to large solar projects as a source of good jobs for the region’s still struggling construction workers. The federal guidelines for solar development in the 148,000-acre Riverside East solar zone, between Joshua Tree National Park and Blythe, envisions 80 percent of the area covered with projects.

Whether any of that will pencil out now appears uncertain.

Environmental advocates have always argued that for solar, smaller rooftop and community projects are the better play, and the market may just prove them right.

 

Obama puts two more Riverside East projects on fast track

NextEra Energy’s 750-megawatt McCoy project and enXco’s 150-megawatt Desert Harvest project — both using photovoltaic panels — have been put on a new federal fast track for approval.

The White House today announced the new fast-track, which includes five other solar projects in three other Western states — two in Arizona, two in Nevada and one in Wyoming — just as U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar also announced the projects at the National Clean Energy Summit in Las Vegas.

Both projects are planned for public land in the Riverside East solar zone between Joshua Tree National Park and Blythe. McCoy is located on the eastern side, near Blythe, while Desert Harvest is on the western side of the zone, near Desert Center and the 550-megawatt Desert Sunlight project owned by NextEra and GE, now under construction.

The two projects could provide hundreds of jobs and millions in economic activity for eastern Riverside County’s economy.

Further details on what the fast-track means — what kind of permitting deadlines we’re talking about — were not immediately available.

The announcement today comes on the heels of Monday’s announcement by Salazar that the Department of the Interior and the Department of Defense have signed an agreement to open up 16 million acres of land on U.S. military bases for renewable energy development.  Defense Department officials confirmed that about 605,000 acres of land at the Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center at Twentynine Palms could be opened for renewable development.

 Check back on mydesert.com and the Green Desert blog for more information.

The final PEIS: Solar city coming to Riverside East

The federal government has big plans for the 147,910 acres of public land stretching from Desert Center to Blythe, commonly known as the Riverside East solar energy zone or SEZ.

But, to find out exactly what’s in store you have to drill into the mammoth final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement, or PEIS, that is now online at solareis.anl.gov. The main sections on Riverside East are in Volume 2, and I’ve noted page numbers to help you navigate.

Here’s a section of the main overview, emphases added:

Full development of the SEZ is anticipated to disturb about 118,328 acres (479 km2), create a very large and continuous industrial-type area along a 45-mi (72-km) stretch of I-10, and exclude many existing and potential uses of the public land. Solar development along I-10, CA 177, and Midland Road would fundamentally change the viewscape of these areas for the traveling public. Because of the interspersed nature of private and public lands in the western portion of the proposed SEZ, solar development will likely raise concerns for some private landowners. There are approximately 11,640 acres (47 km2) of private and state lands located within the external boundaries of or in near proximity to the SEZ that could be used for solar development in a manner similar to public lands if the landowners agree. Roads and trails that cross solar development areas could be closed to public use. Based on the analysis of applications for solar energy development both approved and filed to date, there is a high likelihood of isolating public lands in and around solar energy facilities such that these lands would not be readily accessible and may be hard to manage. (Page 9.4-6, Volume 2, Final PEIS)

Exactly what this means for access to tribal trails and impact on migration corridors for desert plants and animals is unclear, though certainly not encouraging.

Another interesting section concerns transmission.  The PEIS envisions 80 percent of Riverside East–about 118,000 acres– will be covered with solar projects, eventually generating more than 23,000 megawatts. Where’s all that power going to go and how is it going to get there?

Apparently, we’re going to need a whole mess of new transmission lines to get all that power out to major urban areas that can use it, and the report notes, there is no one primary market that can take it all.  Instead, the projects in Riverside East will need lines that can get power to urban markets stretching from Riverside and San Bernardino to San Francisco, Sacramento, and as far east as Dallas and San Antonio.

That could require building thousands of miles of new transmission lines and 31 new substations.  (See Figure 9.4.23.1-2 on page 9.4-144 and Table 9.4.23.2-1, page 9.4-148)

One thing the PEIS doesn’t take into account is the changing economics of utility-scale solar.  Even as panel prices plummet, the prices solar developers can get for their power has continued to fall, and financing is still dicey.

Obviously more details will need to be fleshed out here. One thing that’s important to note, we are now in a 30-day protest period, which means if you have any concerns, you might want to let the folks at the Department of Interior know about it.

Instructions for submitting comments can be found online here.

 

Cultural showdown at the Genesis solar project

The discovery of what could be prehistoric tribal artifacts at NextEra’s  250-megawatt Genesis solar project in the Riverside East solar zone east of the Coachella Valley has sparked a potential standoff between Native American tribal groups on one side and the Bureau of Land Management and the solar developer on the other.

At issue is whether or not work on the solar thermal plant can continue in the area where the artifacts were found, even if it means NextEra might have to abandon the project all together.

The story starts in mid-November when crews grading land at the solar site found stone artifacts called metates and manos, which are prehistoric grinding tools, laying on a bed of charcoal, according to tribal officials.  BLM officials have called the find “unprecedented.”

Since then, the BLM has ordered all work stopped on a 200-acre area of the Genesis site and has been working on a plan that is supposed to ensure any significant archeological finds are preserved but will allow the project to continue.  Telephone conferences with stakeholders have also been held as the bureau has tried to hammer out a workable plan.

The details of exactly what was found and what has happened since the discovery have not been made public so far. NextEra files monthly status reports on the project with the California Energy Commission, but the sections on cultural resources were removed from both the November and December reports.

Steve Stengel, NextEra’s spokesman, laid out the company’s position in a statement recently emailed to The Desert Sun.

“During the permitting process for the Genesis Project, the involved agencies anticipated that Native American artifacts could be found during construction and an agreement was signed by two Native American Tribes that defines a process for respectfully treating the artifacts. While some artifacts have been found, no determination has been made that the artifacts are of a village or prehistoric site. At the request of the BLM, construction activities have been temporarily suspended on a small portion of the project site. The remainder of the site is under construction.”

Desert Sun photographer Richard Lui and I visited the Genesis site the end of January, when I asked NextEra officials point blank if any significant cultural artifacts had been found. They fudged the answer, first saying no, then adding that it would depend on who defined what a significant artifact is. They also did not tell us that the BLM had ordered grading stopped on a portion of the site.

At this point, the draft of the plan for handling the site and any artifacts is also confidential, but based on tribal letters raising concerns about it, the basic idea is that NextEra would be allowed to continue work on the site, using a method called controlled grading. That means trucks would continue to grade the land, but only about an inch down at a time, with the dirt sifted for any artifacts.

John Kalish, field manager at the BLM’s Palm Springs office, said Friday afternoon, the plan was close to approval, despite strong opposition from Native American tribes in the area.

Under agreements with the tribes that were required as part of the federal approval for the project, NextEra was supposed to notify them of any archeological finds on the Genesis site within 48 hours. The tribes are also supposed to be consulted on any further plans for handling of such sites.

According to two letters from the Colorado River Indian Tribes to the BLM, this has not happened. In a letter dated Jan. 19, Eldred Enas, chairman of the Colorado River tribes, said they had not been notified until almost two weeks after the find and they have repeatedly stated that they don’t want the site graded; they consider it a spiritual site and they want it left alone.

In both letters they cite a number of agreements and protocols which state that site avoidance is the preferred mitigation process for cultural findings such as the ones at the Genesis site, unless it is unfeasible, which NextEra maintains it is. The plant itself is planned for about 2,000 acres, so cutting it down by 200 acres or more could mean no project. 

And because assessment of the site is being carried out primarily by NextEra consultants along with archeologists from the BLM and Energy Commission, Enas said the process may be inherently biased.

“While we do not doubt the integrity of these entities, we believe their interests naturally, and necessarily align with the Project’s continued development and completion. Tribal interests may lie elsewhere,” he wrote.

From the tribes’ point of view, he said, the discovery of the artifacts in and of itself makes the site sacred, and no further evaluation is needed to declare it off limits.

He asks for a much slower process to evaluate the site with a Colorado River tribes expert involved and with face-to-face meetings with BLM officials.

Obviously, this is a story that requires further research and reporting.  I will be talking more with NextEra, BLM  and tribal officials on Monday.

I will also be catching up on the status of the kit fox survey now underway, which is trying to find the reason for the recent outbreak of canine distemper among foxes on or near the Genesis site.  From October to December, seven kit foxes died from the disease — another unprecedented occurrence.

Flyover follow-up: where to put solar

Last Thursday, Desert Sun photographer Marilyn Chung and I joined two other journalists, clambering in to a six-seater airplane flown by Bruce Gordon of EcoFlight, for a flyover of the Riverside East solar zone.

The sponsoring organizations — EcoFlight, the Wilderness Society and the National Parks Conservation Association — wanted to give members of the media a birds-eye view of what those 147,000 acres of pristine desert between Joshua Tree National Park and Blythe look like — utterly breath-taking — and the impact of large-scale solar development on the land.

The flyover was scheduled on the day of the public meeting in Palm Desert about the federal Programmatic Solar Environmental Impact Statement – the big-picture plan for solar development on public lands in six western states, including Riverside East, which is the largest of the 17 areas identified as potential solar zones.

We flew over both GE-NextEra’s 550-megawatt Desert Sunlight project and NextEra’s 250 megawatt Genesis project — both in the early stages of construction. What you see from the air are the graded, raw patches of land with truck tracks and, in the case of Desert Sunlight, some solar frames, but no panels yet. The graded areas visible now are only a small part of the projects’ ultimate size.

In other words, these are going to be big projects, and they will change the visual landscape.  Many environmental groups have repeatedly criticized solar development on federal lands, saying smaller-scale projects — rooftop solar, projects on previously disturbed or fallow agricultural lands — are a better way to go.

The issue with rooftop solar is putting together financing packages to get it on the roofs and overcoming homeowners associations’ aversion to it, again because they don’t like the way panels look. Flying back into Palm Springs airport after the flyover, we also got a birds-eye view of rooftops around the airport, and the ones with solar panels stood out because there were so few. The Walmart on Ramon Road has a large rooftop installation, but next door, Lowe’s — with an equally flat and large roof — doesn’t.  We flew over one residential community that had solar on its roofs; most don’t.

Everyone likes the idea of solar, it seems, but conflicts over where to put it and how to pay for it, are ongoing roadblocks.

Environmental groups are not in total agreement on the issue either–with most falling into one of two camps. First, there are the people with a more local focus — most of the groups speaking at Thursday night’s meeting — kind of NIMD, not in my desert. They are concerned about potential impacts on Joshua Tree National Park, on wildlife migration corridors and cultural resources such as sites still used for tribal ceremonies.

The other groups are taking a more global approach — arguing that the impending impacts of climate change and the critical need to cut greenhouse gas emissions sooner rather than later mean we may have to sacrifice some public lands if they offer the best place to put solar — large, flat areas with high-intensity sun.

Saving desert tortoise habitat isn’t going to do much if the weather changes and the desert no longer provides good habitat for the tortoises, they say.

Obviously, these two approaches are not mutually exclusive, and the environmental groups downplay media reports of conflict between them. Individual groups may have different focuses and may not always agree on tactics, said Jennifer Dickson of the Wilderness Society, but they all know each other and keep talking to each other.

As Shannon Stewart, a program manager for the Bureau of Land Management, said at the end of Thursday’s meeting, we need it all — energy efficiency and both rooftop and large-scale solar, along with other renewables — to meet the ever-shortening time line of climate change.

And, as Anjali Appadurai, a young delegate to the UN climate talks in Durban, said in a rousing speech last week — we need to get it done now.

Energy rising for Riverside East solar

Momentum is building on the industrial scale solar projects in the in the Riverside East solar zone — 202,000 acres of public land between Joshua Tree National Park and Blythe.

In my email box today — the announcement from the Department of Energy that it has approved a $681.6 million loan guarantee for NextEra Energy’s Genesis project, a 250-megawatt solar thermal plant.

This Friday sees the official ground-breaking of Solar Millennium’s Blythe solar project — at 1,000 megawatts one of the largest solar thermal projects in the world.

U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar is going to be the headliner here, along with Bob Abbey, director of the Bureau of  Land Management.

The downside here is Solar Millennium continues to tightly control media access to the site.  Reporters and other offiicals invited to the event will be shuttled out to the site and then shuttled back to Palo Verde Community College for a reception.

I have been lobbying the company hard for several months to get a real site visit to meet and spend time with Solar Millennium’s biological and cultural monitoring teams to see what’s actually involved in clearing the land before construction.  So far I have been given excuses ranging from my lack of the special training required for site access (I said I would gladly take any training required) to personal safety — they were surveying the site for unexploded bombs left over from the land’s World War II use as Gen. George Patton’s desert training center. I was told later no bombs were found.

I have not given up getting my boots on the ground out there,  but not Friday.